~Jake’s Official 2010 Oscar Predictions~

Well I’ve seen about as many nominees as I can see, so it’s time to give my final winner predictions. For those wondering, in my nominations predictions I went 81/116, roughly 70%. That’s good but not great and I’d like to be a little higher in my winner predictions, so here we go.

Best Live-Action Short Film
Will Win: “The New Tenants”
Should Win: “The New Tenants”
Snubbed: N/A

For the second year in a row I was able to see all five of the nominees, and I feel that “The New Tenants” is definitely the strongest of the bunch. The witty back-and-forth banter and unexpected pathos should be enough to win over voters.

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: “Logorama”
Should Win: “Logorama”
Snubbed: N/A

The sheer audaciousness of “Logorama” should carry it to a victory, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nick Park grab another award for the latest Wallace and Gromit adventure “A Matter of Loaf and Death.”

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
Should Win: N/A
Snubbed: N/A

Unfortunately I was not able to see any of the documentary shorts this year. “The Last Truck” seems timely and that’s really all I’m basing my guess on.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: “The Cove”
Should Win: “The Cove”
Snubbed: “Facing Ali”

“The Cove” has cleaned up the precursor awards and with good reason – it’s a film of stunning power and heartbreaking beauty.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: “The White Ribbon”
Should Win: N/A
Snubbed: N/A

I haven’t seen any of these yet, but the local art theater I volunteer at is bringing “White Ribbon,” “Un Prophete,” and “Ajami” in the coming weeks so I will get to see some of them soon. “Ribbon” seems to have the most name value, but as we saw last year that doesn’t always translate to victory. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them win.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: “Avatar”
Should Win: “Avatar”
Snubbed: “2012”

All other films’ Visual Effects can bow before that of “Avatar.” While many will argue its Best Picture merits, if any other film wins this category it’s a crock.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: “Avatar”
Should Win: “Avatar”
Snubbed: “Invictus”

“Avatar” just seems like one of those movies that will sweep the big three audio/visual categories, especially since the aural effects were such a big part of the movie.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: “Avatar”
Should Win: “Avatar”
Snubbed: “Moon”

“Avatar” just seems like one of those movies that will sweep the big three audio/visual categories, especially since the sound was such a big part of the movie. I wouldn’t be surprised to see “Hurt Locker” take this one, and if it does that means there’s a lot of love for it and its Best Picture chances get even better. But still, look for “Avatar” to take this one.

Best Makeup
Will Win: “Star Trek”
Should Win: “Il Divo”
Snubbed: “The Road”

“Star Trek” is the highest profile nominee, and since it’s going to lose its other three nominations to “Avatar” this seems like the only place to honor the movie. I say “Il Divo” should win because I really liked the movie, but really none of these three I thought were all that impressive as far as makeup. “The Road” would have been a much better nominee.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: “The Young Victoria”
Should Win: “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
Snubbed: “Sherlock Holmes”

Period pieces like “The Young Victoria” tend to do well in this category, and for good reason. “Victoria” does a great job, but the costumes in “Parnassus” were a little more out-there, and honestly there are dozens of movies that look a lot like “Victoria” from a costume standpoint.

Best Art Direction
Will Win: “Avatar”
Should Win: “Avatar”
Snubbed: “A Serious Man”

Some may complain that it was all done with computers, but the floating mountains and the multitude of otherworldly creations dreamed up by the “Avatar” team deserve some love.

Best Cinematography
Will Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Snubbed: “Moon”

Odd as it may sound, this category could be a good predictor for who will win Best Picture. Both “Avatar” and “Hurt Locker” are strong candidates here, but watch out for a “Basterds” upset too. I’m going with “Hurt Locker” but I’m certainly not confident about it.

Best Editing
Will Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Snubbed: “(500) Days of Summer”

Like cinematography, this one could be an indicator for Best Picture, but I think the odds are much more in “Hurt Locker’s” favor because a great deal of the tension was created through the editing. If “Avatar” pulls off the win here, look out.

Best Original Song
Will Win: “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart),” “Crazy Heart”
Should Win: “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart),” “Crazy Heart”
Snubbed: “Smoke Without Fire,” “An Education”

I would be extremely shocked if anything but “Weary Kind” takes the award here. It’s a song from a movie about a singer, starring the man who’s going to win Best Actor. Bet on this one.

Best Original Score
Will Win: “Up”
Should Win: “Up”
Snubbed: “A Single Man”

Pixar does pretty well in this category, and the same composer won two years ago for “Ratatouille,” and the music of “Up” is great. Once again, if “Hurt Locker” or “Avatar” wins, their Best Picture chances improve.

Best Adapted Screenplay”
Will Win: “Up in the Air”
Should Win: “Up in the Air”
Snubbed: “State of Play”

I had a hard time choosing Should Win between “Air” and “Education,” both of which are so great. I’m not sure how “District 9” got in here, but “Precious” is a good pick and “In the Loop” is an inspired nomination, kudos to the Academy for recognizing it. However this is the only realistic chance “Up in the Air” has to take an award, so it should win this one handily.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: “Inglourious Basterds”
Should Win: “Inglourious Basterds”
Snubbed: “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”

I love all five nominees here – “The Hurt Locker,” “Basterds,” “The Messenger,” “A Serious Man,” and “Up.” Any of them could win and I would be happy (particularly “Serious Man”), but Tarantino has won here before, and throwing the history books out the window to write this revenge tale shouldn’t go unnoticed. If “Locker” pulls this one out, Best Picture looks really good.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Should Win: Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Snubbed: Samantha Morton, “The Messenger”

Mo’Nique has been cleaning up precursor awards, and any derailment of that train would be a huge shock. Her last scene in the movie is as good of a scene as any actor pulled off this year.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Should Win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Snubbed: Christian McKay, “Me and Orson Welles”

Much like his female counterpart in the supporting categories, Waltz has been a nearly unstoppable force of awards momentum this season. He’s hilarious, scary, devious, vile, and everything in between. And he does it in four languages. When I wrote my short review of the movie back in August, I included the tag line “Give This Man An Oscar” under a picture of Waltz. I’m so glad that’s about to come true. I’m a little disappointed Christian McKay didn’t get a nomination for his riveting portrayal of Orson Welles, especially since Damon was good but not great in “Invictus,” but they all take a backseat to Waltz anyway.

Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Should Win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Snubbed: Penelope Cruz, “Broken Embraces”

It’s a shame that just because her movies made over $400 million that Sandra Bullock is going to win an Oscar. “The Blind Side” is a perfectly enjoyable film and Bullock’s performance is good, but it just never felt Oscar Good. Carey Mulligan was the standout of the category for me, but Gabourey Sidibe of “Precious” was almost equally as impressive – both were making their debuts in leading roles. Former winners Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep were their usual great selves (Streep’s Julia Child was a particular joy to watch), but they all bow to the almighty dollar of Bullock. Cruz was nominated in Supporting Actress, but her real best performance was in Pedro Almodovar’s “Broken Embraces.” Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”), Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”), Alison Lohman (“Drag Me to Hell”), and Melanie Laurent (“Inglourious Basterds”) would all have been more fitting nominees than Bullock.

Best Actor
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Should Win: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”

This was a classic heart versus head battle for me. I love Jeff Bridges and his work in “Crazy Heart” is really very good. He’s long overdue for an award, and it seems to be his time. I have no problem with him winning the award. But Clooney’s work in “Up in the Air” is a performance that years from now will be looked at as one of the great, iconic performances of its day. Jeremy Renner and Colin Firth did outstanding work as well; Renner could be a dark horse upset, and Firth was at one-time the front runner. Morgan Freeman was his usual excellent self as Nelson Mandela in “Invictus,” but Michael Stuhlbarg gave the finest performance of the year in “A Serious Man” and didn’t even get a nomination and would have been a much better pick than Freeman.

Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Snubbed: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “A Serious Man”

Whatever happens in Best Picture, Kathryn Bigelow will win Best Director for her pulse-pounding “Hurt Locker.” She will become the first woman to ever win in this category, and it’s well deserved. She’s won almost every major precursor except the Golden Globe (and who the hell is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association anyway?) and anyone else, even the King of the World, winning here, would be a huge upset. This is a great lineup of nominees, though I would have switched out Lee Daniels for “Precious” with former winners the Coen Brothers for their understated work on “A Serious Man.” Quentin Tarantino and Jason Reitman should both have their day, but it just won’t be March 7, 2010.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: “Up”
Should Win: “Up”
Snubbed: “Ponyo”

I loved all four of the nominees I’ve seen from this category (the unreleased in the U.S. “Secret of Kells” I have not seen), but “Up” is my favorite movie of the year, period. It’s Pixar, and it’s nominated for Best Picture as well, so it would be quite mind boggling if it did not win.

Best
Will Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Should Win: “Up”
Snubbed: “The Messenger”

I don’t see a rule stating that a movie can’t be both the best animated film of the year and the best overall film of the year, but since that seems to be an unofficial rule, “Up” is out. “A Serious Man” and “District 9” have their supporters, but likely not enough to carry them to victory. The victory for “The Blind Side” and “An Education” is simply the nomination. That leaves us with the “true five” nominees – the films that also got nominations for Best Director. “Precious” will get its award in the Best Supporting Actress category; many named it One Of the best movies of the year, but very few had it at the top. “Up in the Air” may have been a frontrunner at one point, but it just wasn’t flashy enough to stay in the race for the long haul, which is a real shame since it was my second favorite movie of the year. “Inglourious Basterds” is a long shot dark horse, but Harvey Weinstein is behind it, and he’s pulled off miracles before. That leaves two dogs in the fight, the two most nominated films with nine apiece, “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar.” Like I said throughout, the preliminary awards could be great indicators of how this will ultimately turn out. The disparity between the films is tremendous: “Locker” made just $12 million in domestic box office but has taken most of the critical awards; “Avatar” has made over $700 million in domestic box office, and may have changed the way movies are made. Hollywood likes to vote for the big picture, which is certainly “Avatar,” but there’s just something about “The Hurt Locker” that’s hard to shake.

Predicted Winner Tallies

AVATAR – 4
THE HURT LOCKER – 4
CRAZY HEART – 2
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS – 2
UP – 2
THE BLIND SIDE – 1
THE COVE – 1
THE LAST TRUCK: CLOSING OF A GM PLANT – 1
LOGORAMA – 1
THE NEW TENANTS – 1
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL “PUSH” BY SAPPHIRE – 1
STAR TREK – 1
UP IN THE AIR – 1
THE WHITE RIBBON – 1
THE YOUNG VICTORIA – 1

Check back after the awards to see how I did!

OFFICIAL 2010 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

With the nominations coming out tomorrow morning, here’s what my crystal ball shows…

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Best Animated Film
“Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs”
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“Up”

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Melanie Laurent, “Inglourious Basterds”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christian McKay, “Me and Orson Welles”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”
Samantha Morton, “The Messenger”

Best Original Screenplay
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“District 9”
“An Education”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Single Man”
“Up in the Air”

Best Original Score
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Informant!”
“A Single Man”
“Up”

Best Original Song
All is Love, “Where the Wild Things Are”
Almost There, “The Princess and the Frog”
Cinema Italiano, “Nine”
I See You, “Avatar”
The Weary Kind, “Crazy Heart”

Best Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”

Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Public Enemies”
“The White Ribbon”

Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“A Serious Man”
“Where the Wild Things Are”

Best Costume Design
“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Makeup
“Il Divo”
“District 9”
“The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus”

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“Star Trek”

Best Sound Editing
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”
“Up”

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“Star Trek”
“2012”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami,” Israel
“The Milk of Sorrow,” Peru
“Un Prophète,” France
“The White Ribbon,” Germany
“The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner,” Bulgaria

Best Documentary Feature
“Beaches of Agnes”
“The Cove”
“Facing Ali”
“Food, Inc.”
“Soundtrack for a Revolution”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Tell Them Anything You Want: A Portrait of Maurice Sendak”
“Woman Rebel”

Best Animated Short Film
“The Cat Piano”
“French Roast”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death”
“Partly Cloudy”
“Runaway”

Check back and see how I did!

The Best & Worst Films of 2009

I promised myself that as soon as I saw 100 films for the year 2009, I would make my top 10 list. What’s funny about top 10 lists is that they are hardly set in stone – they are merely snapshots of how a critic feels at a given time. I know some of my previous top 10 lists have changed over the years, but for now, here are the top 10 films of the year.

But before I get to the actual list, here are 10 more movies that were oh so close to cracking the top 10 –


“Adventureland” (dir. Greg Mottola)


“The Cove” (dir. Louis Psihoyos)


“The Garden” (dir. Scott Hamilton Kennedy)


“The Hangover” (dir. Todd Phillips)


“Invictus” (dir. Clint Eastwood)

“Me and Orson Welles” (dir. Richard Linklater)


"Moon" (dir. Duncan Jones)


“Ponyo” (dir. Hayao Miyazaki)


“State of Play” (dir. Kevin Macdonald)


“Sugar” (dir. Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck)

And now, the best of the best:


10. “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (dir. Lee Daniels)

Before this year, the phrase “the Oscar-winning Mo’Nique” seemed like some kind of bad dream – it could never happen, could it? In a few weeks that phrase is about to become a reality after her devastating turn as Mary, mother to the obese Harlem girl she calls Precious, played by the debuting Gabourey Sidibe. The story may seem like movie-of-the-week stuff, but the fully drawn characters elevate it to something greater.


9. “Capitalism: A Love Story” (dir. Michael Moore)

Professional muckraker (and in the interest of full disclosure, my former employer for all of about eight days) Michael Moore has made his name off stirring the pot, but also for seeing deep into his subjects to paint hauntingly memorable images of the country we live in. “Roger & Me,” “The Big One,” “Bowling for Columbine,” “Fahrenheit 9/11,” and “Sicko” are all great films in their own right, but something about “Capitalism” makes it more accessible than the aforementioned films. Regardless of how you feel about Moore or his politics, everyone wants to know what the hell is going on in the American financial system today, and Moore is willing to delve deep into our history and show a side of our country that many would like swept under the rug. He manages to find the humanity in the stories he tells, and he does it as well as any director working today – fiction or nonfiction. The true gem of this movie is recently found, never-before-seen video footage of President Franklin D. Roosevelt laying out his goals for a second Bill of Rights, guaranteeing Americans rights to things like a good job, a decent wage, and good health care. Almost 70 years after his death, many of these dreams are not yet realized. Even if you think you don’t like Michael Moore, give this one a chance and you may just be surprised.


8. “The Messenger” (dir. Oren Moverman)

Losing a loved one in battle must be the hardest things a family would ever have to go through. But how do the men delivering the news feel about their job? Oren Moverman’s fascinating and moving film asks just that question, and Ben Foster and Woody Harrelson answer it with two of the year’s most powerful performances. Samantha Morton is also terrific as the woman who causes both men to examine themselves.


7. “A Serious Man” (dir. By Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)

After years of practically worshipping the Coen Brothers, I feel that they have made a movie specifically for fans like me. Despite its title, “A Serious Man” is the funniest movie of the year, one that makes me laugh out loud just by thinking about it. Michael Stuhlbarg is tremendous in the title role, and it’s a shame that he didn’t get more awards attention this year. Important to note is that no Jews were harmed in the making of this film.


6. “Avatar” (dir. James Cameron)

Much has already been said about the biggest moneymaker of the year, and the soon to be biggest moneymaker of all time. The truth of the matter is that James Cameron’s philosophy of “go big or go home” has never been more gloriously realized than it is with “Avatar.” The story made not be all that original, but Cameron still manages to take the audiences places they’ve never been before and show us something spectacularly beyond our wildest imagination.


5. “Inglourious Basterds” (dir. Quentin Tarantino)

No one but Tarantino would have the chutzpah to film a movie this inglouriously funny, inglouriously factually challenged, and inglouriously cool. He’s been talking about it for years, and it was truly worth the wait. Christoph Waltz is magnetic as Col. Hans Landa, and the rest of the cast including Brad Pitt (never funnier), Melanie Laurent, Diane Kruger, and Mike Myers (yes, really) among others deliver the classic Tarantino dialogue we’ve come to know and love.


4. “An Education” (dir. Lone Scherfig)

Carey Mulligan shines through, but the entire cast of Lone Scherfig’s “An Education” does incredible work. Peter Sarsgaard and Alfred Molina are terrific as the men in the life of young Jenny (Mulligan), living in early 1960s, pre-Beatles London. Jenny’s journey of self discovery is an education not just for her, but for everyone around her.


3. “The Hurt Locker” (dir. Kathryn Bigelow)

Kathryn Bigelow here has crafted a movie brimming over with white-knuckle intensity, about men diffusing bombs in Iraq. Jeremy Renner and Anthony Mackie deserve Oscar nominations for their work, but the richest reward will be for Bigelow, who will certainly become only the fourth woman ever nominated for Best Director. She stands the best chance at becoming the first woman ever to win the award, and if she does it will be going to the person who deserves it most. What a great movie.


2. “Up in the Air” (dir. Jason Reitman)

Jason Reitman has hit the nail on the head of the current state of fear many Americans reside in – the fear of losing your job. George Clooney is Ryan Bingham, the man bosses call in when they’re too afraid to fire their own employees. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are terrific as the women in his life, who both in their own ways try to get close to the distant Bingham. The witty banter here sounds like real people might say it, unlike Reitman’s previous film. This is a film both timely and timeless.


1. “Up” (dir. Pete Docter)

No film filled me with more absolute joy than the latest from the greatest movie studio ever, Pixar. Ed Asner stars as the grumpy old Carl, who wants to escape the world by tying thousands of balloons to his house and simply floating away. The friendships he makes with Russell, Dug, and Kevin make for some of the most heartwarming moments of the year.

Conversely, I also found 10 films that were detestable in just about every way. Stay far away from these:


10. “The Girlfriend Experience” (dir. Steven Soderbergh)

I can sum up this movie in a few lines – “Hey, did you know that the economy crashing is hard on rich people too? I mean, I still have enough money for my high priced hooker, but man this economy sure is rough.” Thanks for nothing Steven.


9. “My Bloody Valentine” (dir. Patrick Lussier)

3-D certainly didn’t make this dreadful horror film any more fun. Its’ twists and turns make little sense and can be seen from miles away, with or without 3-D glasses.


8. “Obsessed” (dir. Steve Shill)

When you have to include two montages in the first five minutes, it should be a sign that perhaps your film is a little weak. Plus Beyonce’s character, who is supposed to be the heroine, is so unlikable that I found myself rooting for the stalker.


7. “Fired Up” (dir. Will Gluck)

Sadly, the trio of director Will Gluck, and stars Eric Christian Olsen and Philip Baker Hall, who all helped create one of the greatest overlooked TV shows ever, “The Loop,” made one stinker of a movie. Let me guess – the guys who say they only care about shagging broads turn out to be good guys and good cheerleaders. Yawn.


6. “Fanboys” (dir. Kyle Newman)

A friend of mine tried to defend this movie as “but don’t know people like that in real life?” The answer is yes, and I don’t like them in real life and I don’t like them in this movie.


5. “Bruno” (dir. Larry Charles)

The poster says “Borat was so 2006.” Hey Sacha Baron Cohen, so are you. Can you please go away now?


4. “The Ugly Truth” (dir. Robert Luketic)

Dear Gerard Butler, please stop appearing in every other movie. Everything you have been in since "300" sucks, and you are not half as cool or hip as you pretend to be. Sincerely, Jake Ziegler.


3. “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (dir. Michael Bay)

It’s big, it’s loud, and it’s stupid. Don’t try to defend it as “just a popcorn movie” to me – popcorn movies can still be bad, and this movie is bad on every level, no matter what concessions I choose to enjoy during it.


2. “Year One” (dir. Harold Ramis)

What a sad waste of talent. Harold Ramis especially, I’m very disappointed in you.


1. “Miss March” (dir. Zach Cregger, Trevor Moore)

The story here follows two friends that … ah who cares. Friends shouldn’t let friends make movies like “Miss March.” Or is it February?

There you have it, the best and worst of the cinematic year 2009. I will have more Oscars coverage soon, so stay tuned to JZ Says!

My Oscar Ballot

Since official Oscar ballots are due tomorrow, I think it’s time I fill out my own fantasy ballot. I haven’t seen every movie I need to see (“Crazy Heart” and “A Single Man” stand out, amongst others), but ballots are due, so here we go. I am voting as if I were a real member of the Academy, so I’m going by all their rules and eligible films. These are not predictions, which will come later, but how I would vote if I were lucky enough to be a voting member of the Academy.

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Sugar”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Best Animated Film
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“Mary and Max”
“Ponyo”
“Up”

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
The Coen Brothers, “A Serious Man”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglorious Basterds”

Best Actor
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Ben Foster, “The Messenger”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Sam Rockwell, “Moon”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”

Best Actress
Zooey Deschanel, “(500) Days of Summer”
Melanie Laurent, “Inglorious Basterds”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Anthony Mackie, “The Hurt Locker”
Christian McKay, “Me and Orson Welles”
Alfred Molina, “An Education”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglorious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Marion Cotillard, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Samantha Morton, “The Messenger”

Best Original Screenplay
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“An Education”
“Me and Orson Welles”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“Up in the Air”
“Where the Wild Things Are”

Best Original Score
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Road”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Best Original Song
All is Love, “Where the Wild Things Are”
Cinema Italiano, “Nine”
Petey’s Song, “Fantastic Mr. Fox”
Smoke without Fire, “An Education”
Stu’s Song, “The Hangover”

Best Film Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“Invictus”

Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“The Road”
“A Serious Man”

Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“Nine”
“A Serious Man”
“Where the Wild Things Are”

Best Costume Design
“An Education”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“Nine”
“The Road”

Best Makeup
“District 9”
“The Road”
“Star Trek”

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“Star Trek”

Best Sound Editing
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglorious Basterds”
“2012”
“Up”

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”

Best Documentary Feature
“The Cove”
“Every Little Step”
“Facing Ali”
“Food, Inc.”
“Valentino: The Last Emperor”